BFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$26.84
-0.30 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-3.03%
30d:
-4.65%
90d:
-7.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BFST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BFST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.14
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $26.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.18 to $28.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.40 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.40 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.18 -
$28.52
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($32.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.18 -
$28.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.63
Resistance Level
$27.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$32.40
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.49
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$26.15
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$25.81
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$26.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.8%)
$92.57
(+245%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 8.8%)
$34.60
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$29.41
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$34.45
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$31.32
(+17%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$18.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$27.98
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 1:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark P Folse
SELL
4854 shares
2026-02-10
Mark P Folse
SELL
5146 shares
2026-02-09
Donald Chad Carter
SELL
3778 shares
2026-01-29
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