Is BP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, BP is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: BP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of BP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for BP to be between $34.19 and $36.68. The current price is $37.88.

What is the analyst price target for BP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for BP is $38.84. This implies a potential upside of 2.1% from current levels.

BP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BP - BP p.l.c.

Petroleum Refining

$37.88

-0.16 (-0.42%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 10, 2026 9d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -2.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$38.13

Based on 1.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$23.68

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $37.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.19 to $36.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: BP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $34.19 - $36.68

Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 58.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.84)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $34.19 - $36.68

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $35.03

Resistance Level $38.89

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.51

Wall Street Target $38.84 (+2.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 500.0%

Profit Margin 0.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.5% premium

PE vs Historical 13.5 vs 12.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $38.61 (+2%)

2-Year Target $39.19 (+3%)

3-Year Target $39.78 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→13) PE COMPRESSION $37.98 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.0%) $59.03 (+55%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: -2.0%) $35.76 (-6%)

Bear: (PE: 11.5, Growth: -2.0%) $30.40 (-20%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 13.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.87

Bull Case $45.74 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.9

Base Case $37.88 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.2

Bear Case $28.98 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 PM

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