BUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BUR - Burford Capital Limited
$4.14
-3.69 (-47.13%)
▼
5d:
-46.23%
30d:
-51.41%
90d:
-54.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BUR is down 46.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BUR is down 46.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.18
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.94
40.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BUR is currently trading at $4.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.30 to $9.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.7) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 62.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.59, while resistance sits at $8.51. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 47.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.77 (+305.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.59, while resistance sits at $8.51. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 47.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.77 (+305.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.30 -
$9.37
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-47.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 305.0% below Wall St target ($16.77)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -46.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.30 -
$9.37
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.59
Resistance Level
$8.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.69
Wall Street Target
$16.77
(+305.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-75.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.5%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.7 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.02
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$5.24
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$37.89
(+815%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 14.6%)
$6.24
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 14.6%)
$5.30
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$16.94
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.3
Base Case
$15.40
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$5.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$7.19
(+73.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+73.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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