BUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BUR - Burford Capital Limited
$9.69
0.03 (0.31%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.08
19.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BUR is currently trading at $9.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.10 to $9.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 62.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.30, while resistance sits at $10.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.12 (+98.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.30, while resistance sits at $10.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.12 (+98.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$9.10 -
$9.74
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 98.0% below Wall St target ($19.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.10 -
$9.74
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.30
Resistance Level
$10.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.09
Wall Street Target
$19.13
(+98.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.5%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.49
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$9.40
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$9.72
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 44.0%)
$105.58
(+993%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 44.0%)
$28.84
(+199%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 44.0%)
$24.51
(+154%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$21.58
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$19.62
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$6.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$9.99
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BUR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BUR price and gamma walls.
