BURL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BURL - BURLINGTON STORES, INC.
$311.34
-1.41 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
-2.28%
30d:
+1.46%
90d:
+7.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
BURL is up 9.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $255 2026-04-24 with 2,531 OI. Put ratio: 96% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BURL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BURL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$432.64
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$268.64
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BURL is currently trading at $311.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $300.78 to $317.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BURL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $298.18, while resistance sits at $332.02.
Market Sentiment: BURL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.50 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BURL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $298.18, while resistance sits at $332.02.
Market Sentiment: BURL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.50 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$300.78 -
$317.41
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($370.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$300.78 -
$317.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$20.90
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$298.18
Resistance Level
$332.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.98
Wall Street Target
$370.50
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
28.0 vs 27.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$313.38
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$314.00
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$314.63
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$313.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.0, Growth: 14.4%)
$468.65
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.4%)
$375.15
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 14.4%)
$318.87
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.50
Bull Case
$401.67
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$365.15
(+15%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$211.06
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BURL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer Vecchio
SELL
419 shares
2025-11-03
Travis Marquette
SELL
84 shares
2025-10-07
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Advanced BURL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BURL price and gamma walls.