CENX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$45.33
-3.60 (-7.36%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
17d
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1 traders called CENX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CENX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CENX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.09
16.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $45.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.55 to $48.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$40.55 -
$48.19
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CENX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with 17.3% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.55 -
$48.19
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.41
Resistance Level
$52.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.60
Wall Street Target
$50.00
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.56
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$45.78
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$46.01
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 142.5%)
$448.94
(+890%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 142.5%)
$152.99
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 142.5%)
$130.04
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (58x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 58.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$107.80
(+138%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 64.2
Base Case
$98.00
(+116%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 58.3
Bear Case
$33.32
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 49.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Agust F Hafberg
SELL
9493 shares
2025-09-26
Matt Aboud
SELL
12027 shares
2025-08-12
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