CG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$46.46
0.78 (1.72%)
▲
5d:
-2.57%
30d:
-10.65%
90d:
-23.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CG is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $52.5 2026-05-15 with 10,435 OI. Call ratio: 94% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 70% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 70% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.73
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.54
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $46.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.50 to $51.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.50 (+45.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.50 (+45.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$46.50 -
$51.74
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.6% below Wall St target ($66.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$46.50 -
$51.74
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.37
Resistance Level
$49.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.48
Wall Street Target
$66.50
(+45.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.65
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$37.99
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$34.64
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$45.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$197.37
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$74.69
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 17.8%)
$63.49
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.18
Bull Case
$103.69
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$94.26
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$32.05
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$60.34
(+32.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Rubenstein
SELL
625000 shares
2025-12-10
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Advanced CG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CG price and gamma walls.
