CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$89.07
-0.04 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
+1.71%
30d:
-1.85%
90d:
-21.72%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.06
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.28
7.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $89.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.53 to $91.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.50 (+52.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.50 (+52.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$84.53 -
$91.95
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.1% below Wall St target ($135.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.53 -
$91.95
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.97
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.23
Resistance Level
$90.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.00
Wall Street Target
$135.50
(+52.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.2%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.90
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$79.04
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$74.45
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$89.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 11.5%)
$211.92
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$123.58
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$105.05
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$129.32
(+53%)
Analyst growth 40.4%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$117.56
(+39%)
Market implied 40.4%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$56.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$106.92
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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