CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$85.86
1.34 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
-6.6%
90d:
-25.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.13
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.95
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $85.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.50 to $92.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.23, while resistance sits at $89.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.50 (+57.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.23, while resistance sits at $89.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.50 (+57.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$84.50 -
$92.42
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.8% below Wall St target ($135.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.50 -
$92.42
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.09
(4.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.23
Resistance Level
$89.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$135.50
(+57.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.2%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.68
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$73.94
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$68.62
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$86.04
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$230.25
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 11.5%)
$119.13
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 11.5%)
$101.26
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$129.32
(+53%)
Analyst growth 40.4%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$117.56
(+39%)
Market implied 40.4%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$56.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$107.66
(+25.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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