CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$98.36
0.43 (0.44%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When CHDN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called CHDN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.76
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.92
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $98.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.93 to $113.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.08 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.08 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$101.93 -
$113.26
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($138.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$101.93 -
$113.26
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.26
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.02
Resistance Level
$109.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.28
Wall Street Target
$138.08
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.62
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$89.50
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$85.56
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$98.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$216.34
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$138.50
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 12.2%)
$117.73
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.50
Bull Case
$135.68
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.7%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$123.35
(+25%)
Market implied 24.7%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$67.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$112.50
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Gambling Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Gambling by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DKNG
DraftKings Inc |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$45 | 55 HOLD |
|
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$285 | 52 HOLD |
|
RSI
Rush Street Interactive … |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$24 | 57 HOLD |
|
GAMB
Gambling.com Group Ltd |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$9 | 56 HOLD |
|
BRAG
Bragg Gaming Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$8 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced CHDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHDN price and gamma walls.
