CHE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHE - Chemed Corporation
$427.14
-2.86 (-0.67%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.24
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHE is currently trading at $427.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $431.08 to $449.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $421.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $555.50 (+29.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $421.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $555.50 (+29.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$431.08 -
$449.86
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($555.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$431.08 -
$449.86
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.52
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$421.07
Resistance Level
$456.79
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.92
Wall Street Target
$555.50
(+29.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$426.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$423.15
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$419.76
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$429.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$855.18
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.7%)
$648.95
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$551.61
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.91
Bull Case
$639.37
(+50%)
Analyst growth 34.4%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$581.25
(+36%)
Market implied 34.4%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$294.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$439.59
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin J Mcnamara
SELL
3000 shares
2025-09-26
Patrick P Grace
SELL
150 shares
2025-09-09
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