CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$120.25
5.08 (4.41%)
▲
5d:
+4.06%
30d:
-10.72%
90d:
-26.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
CHKP is down 15.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $125 2026-06-18 with 522 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.5/10
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1 traders called CHKP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.84
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.82
17.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $120.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.41 to $142.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.32 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.32 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$118.41 -
$142.58
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($144.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.41 -
$142.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.34
Resistance Level
$120.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.52
Wall Street Target
$144.32
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
38.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$97.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$87.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$123.32
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.6%)
$331.95
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 9.6%)
$158.46
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$134.69
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.72
Bull Case
$148.97
(+24%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$135.43
(+13%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$78.32
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$169.16
(+40.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHKP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHKP price and gamma walls.
