CHMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$74.50
-1.78 (-2.33%)
▼
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
+7.58%
90d:
+38.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 6.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 6.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.55
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $74.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.33 to $74.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$69.33 -
$74.01
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($70.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.33 -
$74.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.54
Resistance Level
$76.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.89
Wall Street Target
$70.25
(-5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
19.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 8.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.57
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$84.98
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$90.75
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$191.57
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$87.02
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 5.3%)
$71.24
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$166.71
(+124%)
Analyst growth 98.7%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$151.55
(+103%)
Market implied 98.7%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$51.87
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert H Dalrymple
SELL
2833 shares
2026-02-26
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
748 shares
2026-02-04
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
242 shares
2026-02-03
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