CHMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$65.51
-1.29 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-3.66%
30d:
+10.47%
90d:
+10.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.77
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $65.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.02 to $68.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$60.02 -
$68.23
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.02 -
$68.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.00
Resistance Level
$70.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.70
Wall Street Target
$70.25
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
19.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.13
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$70.86
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$73.69
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.22
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.3%)
$194.12
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.3%)
$76.52
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$65.04
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.81
Bull Case
$145.22
(+122%)
Analyst growth 97.6%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$132.02
(+102%)
Market implied 97.6%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$45.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert H Dalrymple
SELL
2833 shares
2026-02-26
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
748 shares
2026-02-04
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
242 shares
2026-02-03
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