CMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMT - Core Molding Technologies, Inc.
$22.40
-0.20 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
+6.36%
30d:
+13.36%
90d:
+4.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.07
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.26
7.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMT is currently trading at $22.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.75 to $21.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.75 -
$21.28
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.75 -
$21.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.70
Resistance Level
$22.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.20
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.1%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.27
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$22.13
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$22.00
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$22.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.0%)
$75.42
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 19.0%)
$37.79
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 19.0%)
$32.12
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$34.21
(+58%)
Analyst growth 55.0%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$31.10
(+43%)
Market implied 55.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$13.64
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$22.80
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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