COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$218.93
-0.38 (-0.17%)
ā¼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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1 traders called COF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: COF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
ā BUY SIGNAL: COF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$508.44
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$315.70
30.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $218.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $225.09 to $250.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $214.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $278.19 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $214.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $278.19 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$225.09 -
$250.50
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($278.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$225.09 -
$250.50
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$214.57
Resistance Level
$243.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.77
Wall Street Target
$278.19
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$203.30
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$188.46
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$174.70
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9ā11)
$219.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.5%)
$1026.23
(+368%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 22.5%)
$403.37
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 22.5%)
$342.87
(+56%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 10.15 | Forward EPS (Implied): $21.60
Bull Case
$264.82
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$219.31
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$167.77
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$275.22
(+25.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew W Cooper
SELL
2000 shares
2025-10-02
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-25
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COF price and gamma walls.
