COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$1014.96
18.40 (1.85%)
▲
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+0.82%
90d:
+17.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: COST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$785.38
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$487.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $1014.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $979.81 to $1005.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 45.2) is in line with its historical norms (43.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1016.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1016.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$979.81 -
$1005.60
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1067.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$979.81 -
$1005.60
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$961.00
Resistance Level
$1016.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.16
Wall Street Target
$1067.09
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
45.2 vs 43.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1026.12
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1037.41
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$1048.82
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$1014.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$1348.72
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$614.27
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$522.13
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 50.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.25
Bull Case
$1248.47
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 55.6
Base Case
$1134.98
(+18%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 50.5
Bear Case
$661.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 9:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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