COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$940.25
-12.64 (-1.33%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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5 traders called COST this week
80% bullish • 1 bearish
80% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$773.05
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$480.00
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $940.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $874.05 to $967.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.8) is in line with its historical norms (43.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $930.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $930.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$874.05 -
$967.08
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1030.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$874.05 -
$967.08
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$930.30
Resistance Level
$993.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.78
Wall Street Target
$1030.19
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.8 vs 43.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$950.03
(0%)
2-Year Target
$947.18
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$944.34
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→43)
$953.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$1254.17
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.6%)
$653.74
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.6%)
$555.68
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 51.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.64
Bull Case
$1262.86
(+34%)
Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 56.7
Base Case
$1148.05
(+22%)
Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 51.5
Bear Case
$653.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 43.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.8 to 43.2
Stabilization Target:
$962.21
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tiffany Marie Barbre
SELL
1239 shares
2025-10-24
Claudine Adamo
SELL
2700 shares
2025-10-24
Russell D Miller
SELL
3381 shares
2025-09-29
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