COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$996.58
12.72 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
+3.19%
30d:
-1.41%
90d:
+14.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$785.30
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$487.61
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $996.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $978.79 to $1003.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.4) is in line with its historical norms (43.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1008.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1008.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$978.79 -
$1003.61
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1067.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$978.79 -
$1003.61
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$961.00
Resistance Level
$1008.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.35
Wall Street Target
$1067.09
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
44.4 vs 43.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1001.56
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1006.57
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$1011.60
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$996.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$1324.19
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$667.29
(-33%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$567.20
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 50.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.25
Bull Case
$1248.47
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 55.6
Base Case
$1134.98
(+18%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 50.5
Bear Case
$661.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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