DG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DG - Dollar General Corp.
$104.38
2.63 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
-10.38%
30d:
-14.14%
90d:
-29.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
18d
Smart Money Accumulation
DG is down 6.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $145 2026-06-18 with 4,472 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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2 traders called DG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: DG is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: DG is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$195.14
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.17
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $104.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.57 to $123.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 121.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $100.81, while resistance sits at $118.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.25 (+43.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $100.81, while resistance sits at $118.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.25 (+43.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$110.57 -
$123.95
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.7% below Wall St target ($146.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.57 -
$123.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.81
Resistance Level
$118.58
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.09
Wall Street Target
$146.25
(+43.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
121.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.78
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$82.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$74.67
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→19)
$101.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$213.02
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$136.21
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$115.78
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$121.31
(+19%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$110.28
(+8%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$71.15
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$138.63
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 1:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Bryan D Wheeler
SELL
9776 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced DG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DG price and gamma walls.
