CRTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CRTO - Criteo S.A.
$19.17
-0.59 (-2.99%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CRTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CRTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.43
Based on 1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CRTO is currently trading at $19.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.73 to $20.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.3) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 536.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.75 (+80.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.75 (+80.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$19.73 -
$20.78
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
48th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CRTO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 48th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.9% below Wall St target ($35.75)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.73 -
$20.78
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.43
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.02
Resistance Level
$20.86
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.30
Wall Street Target
$35.75
(+80.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
536.4%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.58
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.41
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$19.23
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$19.67
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.6%)
$97.66
(+394%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: -1.6%)
$18.84
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: -1.6%)
$16.02
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.96
Bull Case
$33.64
(+76%)
Analyst growth 55.2%, PE expands to 7.3
Base Case
$30.58
(+60%)
Market implied 55.2%, PE stable at 6.7
Bear Case
$13.40
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.21
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CRTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CRTO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CRTO price and gamma walls.
