CRTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CRTO - Criteo S.A.
$17.46
0.28 (1.63%)
▲
5d:
+0.29%
30d:
-2.29%
90d:
-12.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CRTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CRTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.57
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CRTO is currently trading at $17.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.26 to $18.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.8) is in line with its historical norms (4.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.71, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: CRTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.95 (+71.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.71, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: CRTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.95 (+71.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$17.26 -
$18.68
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
45th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 45th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.6% below Wall St target ($29.95)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.26 -
$18.68
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.27
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.71
Resistance Level
$18.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.77
Wall Street Target
$29.95
(+71.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.7%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 4.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.60
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$16.18
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$17.60
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$131.31
(+652%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$22.15
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.83
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$32.80
(+88%)
Analyst growth 75.4%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$29.82
(+71%)
Market implied 75.4%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$11.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.8 to 4.1
Stabilization Target:
$18.98
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CRTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Der Kooi Frederik Van
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
Ryan Damon
SELL
3222 shares
2025-12-17
Ryan Damon
SELL
3394 shares
2025-11-24
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