APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$485.05
31.52 (6.95%)
▲
5d:
-2.77%
30d:
+4.39%
90d:
+32.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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18 traders called APP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1022.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$634.81
23.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $485.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $421.86 to $484.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (29.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 113.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $443.00, while resistance sits at $512.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $644.97 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $443.00, while resistance sits at $512.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $644.97 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$421.86 -
$484.67
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.2% below Wall St target ($644.97)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$421.86 -
$484.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$443.00
Resistance Level
$512.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.60
Wall Street Target
$644.97
(+42.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
113.1%
Profit Margin
64.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 29.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$408.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$367.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$330.62
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→30)
$454.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 29.8%)
$1012.20
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 29.8%)
$991.84
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 29.8%)
$843.06
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.48
Bull Case
$987.36
(+118%)
Analyst growth 82.9%, PE expands to 47.0
Base Case
$897.60
(+98%)
Market implied 82.9%, PE stable at 42.7
Bear Case
$333.67
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 29.7
Stabilization Target:
$623.70
(+37.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 2:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-18
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