CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$37.34
0.26 (0.70%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.91
Based on -0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $37.34, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.47 to $37.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.2) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.45 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.45 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$36.47 -
$37.37
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.47 -
$37.37
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.05
Resistance Level
$37.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.20
Wall Street Target
$41.45
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.4%
Profit Margin
61.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$38.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$38.89
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.13
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.6%)
$31.28
(+-16%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.2, Growth: -5.6%)
$31.14
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.9, Growth: -5.6%)
$26.47
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.36
Bull Case
$49.33
(+32%)
Analyst growth 22.8%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$44.84
(+20%)
Market implied 22.8%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$24.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CTRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
