CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$78.92
0.51 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
-2.76%
30d:
-9.88%
90d:
-37.05%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVLT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.9% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVLT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.9% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.71
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.86
26.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $78.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.22 to $86.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.94, while resistance sits at $82.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.38 (+76.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.94, while resistance sits at $82.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.38 (+76.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$78.22 -
$86.06
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.5% below Wall St target ($138.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$78.22 -
$86.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.94
Resistance Level
$82.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.29
Wall Street Target
$138.38
(+76.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 23.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$63.51
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$57.16
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$80.70
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.0%)
$163.78
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 15.0%)
$119.38
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 15.0%)
$101.48
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$174.70
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.5
Base Case
$158.82
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.4
Bear Case
$54.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$110.70
(+41.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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