CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$75.18
-0.90 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
-6.94%
30d:
-11.64%
90d:
-41.45%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.22
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.80
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $75.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.73 to $87.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.38 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.38 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$78.73 -
$87.04
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.1% below Wall St target ($138.38)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$78.73 -
$87.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.72
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.06
Resistance Level
$83.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.62
Wall Street Target
$138.38
(+84.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 23.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$60.90
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$54.81
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$81.40
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.0%)
$163.78
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 15.0%)
$114.46
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 15.0%)
$97.30
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$174.70
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.5
Base Case
$158.82
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.4
Bear Case
$54.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$111.66
(+48.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-03-17
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10338 shares
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1892 shares
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