CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$43.39
-2.90 (-6.26%)
▼
5d:
-8.07%
30d:
-26.33%
90d:
+9.88%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CYD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CYD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.99
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $43.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.75 to $56.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.6) compared to its historical average (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.95 (+47.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.95 (+47.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.75 -
$56.84
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.4% below Wall St target ($63.95)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.75 -
$56.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.39
Resistance Level
$60.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.62
Wall Street Target
$63.95
(+47.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 2.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.70
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$36.33
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$33.24
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$43.08
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.3%)
$1146.78
(+2543%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 25.3%)
$85.32
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$72.52
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$101.84
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$92.58
(+113%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$31.48
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$56.23
(+29.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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