CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$49.91
-0.09 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
+5.15%
30d:
+15.36%
90d:
-8.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CYD is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CYD is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.42
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $49.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.52 to $47.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.2) is in line with its historical norms (2.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $38.50, while resistance sits at $51.82.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.74 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $38.50, while resistance sits at $51.82.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.74 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.52 -
$47.30
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($55.74)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.52 -
$47.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.50
Resistance Level
$51.82
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.21
Wall Street Target
$55.74
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
2.2 vs 2.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.45
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$50.90
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$51.36
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.11
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.2%)
$762.15
(+1424%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.2, Growth: 15.2%)
$76.35
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.9, Growth: 15.2%)
$64.90
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$112.24
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$102.04
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$34.69
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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