DG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DG - Dollar General Corp.
$118.58
1.42 (1.21%)
▲
5d:
-5.22%
30d:
-24.1%
90d:
-13.97%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
DG is up 4.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $145 2026-03-20 with 6,325 OI. Put ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$207.33
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.74
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $118.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.09 to $152.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 121.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.43 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.43 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$125.09 -
$152.57
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($148.43)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$125.09 -
$152.57
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.60
Resistance Level
$135.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.23
Wall Street Target
$148.43
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
121.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 20.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.61
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$100.68
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$93.33
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$117.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$216.50
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$156.84
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$133.31
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$144.37
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$131.25
(+5%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$84.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$147.29
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 12:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Bryan D Wheeler
SELL
9776 shares
2025-12-19
Rhonda Taylor
SELL
7500 shares
2025-12-16
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Advanced DG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DG price and gamma walls.
