DRH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DRH - DiamondRock Hospitality Company
$9.18
-0.01 (-0.11%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DRH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DRH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.14
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.40
2.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DRH is currently trading at $9.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.09 to $9.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$9.09 -
$9.39
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.09 -
$9.39
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.02
Resistance Level
$9.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.76
Wall Street Target
$10.19
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.12
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$8.97
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$9.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.2%)
$16.29
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$14.44
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$12.27
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$17.78
(+94%)
Analyst growth 78.8%, PE expands to 38.3
Base Case
$16.17
(+76%)
Market implied 78.8%, PE stable at 34.8
Bear Case
$6.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$9.39
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DRH price and gamma walls.
