DUOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DUOL - Duolingo, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$134.06
-5.41 (-3.88%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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10 traders called DUOL this week
73% bullish • 3 bearish
73% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: DUOL is down 14.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: DUOL is down 14.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.02
Based on -14.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.20
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DUOL is currently trading at $134.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $148.67 to $179.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1114.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $252.17 (+88.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $252.17 (+88.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$148.67 -
$179.81
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DUOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 88.1% below Wall St target ($252.17)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$148.67 -
$179.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$133.50
Resistance Level
$161.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.95
Wall Street Target
$252.17
(+88.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1114.3%
Profit Margin
40.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.59
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$110.28
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$100.03
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$134.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -33.5%)
$128.61
(+-4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: -33.5%)
$97.73
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: -33.5%)
$83.07
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.94
Bull Case
$156.51
(+17%)
Analyst growth -0.4%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$142.28
(+6%)
Market implied -0.4%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$97.10
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$179.58
(+34.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DUOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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Advanced DUOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DUOL price and gamma walls.
