EARN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EARN - Ellington Credit Company
$5.30
-0.16 (-2.93%)
▼
5d:
-5.36%
30d:
+0.57%
90d:
+1.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Mar 11, 2026
Get Alerted When EARN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EARN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: EARN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.20
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.47
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EARN is currently trading at $5.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.31 to $5.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.4) is in line with its historical norms (5.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EARN is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EARN is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$5.31 -
$5.60
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.31 -
$5.60
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.29
Resistance Level
$5.72
Current Trend
Support Break
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.39
Wall Street Target
$5.75
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
-14.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 5.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$5.35
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$5.38
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.4%)
$28.71
(+442%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$6.94
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$5.90
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$12.01
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$10.92
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$3.71
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 6:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is EARN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gregory Morris Borenstein
BUY
3000 shares
2025-10-01
Gregory Morris Borenstein
BUY
4000 shares
2025-09-05
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KKR
KKR & Co LP |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$159 | 56 HOLD |
|
BLK
BlackRock Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$1334 | 60 HOLD |
|
APO
Apollo Global Management… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$165 | 57 HOLD |
|
CRBG
Corebridge Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$38 | 66 BUY |
|
BX
Blackstone Group Inc |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$174 | 52 HOLD |