EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$12.57
-0.20 (-1.57%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.39
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.93
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $12.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.04 to $12.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.68, while resistance sits at $13.27.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.68, while resistance sits at $13.27.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$10.04 -
$12.46
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 22.3% above Wall St target ($9.93)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with -13.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.04 -
$12.46
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.68
Resistance Level
$13.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.06
Wall Street Target
$9.93
(-22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.8%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.32
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$13.89
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$14.49
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.9%)
$33.63
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 5.9%)
$15.17
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 5.9%)
$12.89
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.36
Bull Case
$13.11
(+4%)
Analyst growth -6.6%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$11.91
(-5%)
Market implied -6.6%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$8.68
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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