Is ESTC stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ESTC is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ESTC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ESTC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ESTC to be between $70.88 and $77.48. The current price is $65.93.

What is the analyst price target for ESTC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ESTC is $103.96. This implies a potential upside of 53.5% from current levels.

ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ESTC - Elastic N.V.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$65.93

-1.79 (-2.64%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ESTC Gains

Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 26, 2026 25d

Smart Money Accumulation

ESTC is down 8.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $85 2026-03-20 with 2,706 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ESTC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$108.11

Based on 9.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$67.13

1.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $65.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.88 to $77.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (32.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ESTC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.96 (+53.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $70.88 - $77.48

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 53.5% below Wall St target ($103.96)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.1%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $70.88 - $77.48

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $65.39

Resistance Level $76.15

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.19

Wall Street Target $103.96 (+53.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 15.9%

Profit Margin -6.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 24.2 vs 32.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $61.69 (-9%)

2-Year Target $56.20 (-17%)

3-Year Target $51.20 (-24%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→32) $67.72 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.2, Growth: 14.3%) $101.00 (+49%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.3%) $93.09 (+38%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 14.3%) $79.13 (+17%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.2 to 32.0

Stabilization Target: $89.57 (+32.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +32.3%

Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jane E Bone SELL 1250 shares 2025-10-13

Navam Welihinda SELL 1256 shares 2025-10-06

Ashutosh Kulkarni SELL 5000 shares 2025-09-15

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Advanced ESTC Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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