ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$50.42
1.90 (3.91%)
▲
5d:
-4.67%
30d:
-3.17%
90d:
-34.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ESTC is down 9.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $65 2026-05-15 with 2,495 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
Get Alerted When ESTC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.54
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.29
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $50.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.74 to $57.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.30, while resistance sits at $56.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.12 (+69.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.30, while resistance sits at $56.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.12 (+69.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$50.74 -
$57.80
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 69.3% below Wall St target ($82.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.74 -
$57.80
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.30
Resistance Level
$56.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.15
Wall Street Target
$82.13
(+69.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Profit Margin
-5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.67
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→26)
$53.64
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$88.73
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$67.92
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$57.73
(+19%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$73.58
(+51.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
INTU
Intuit Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$610 | 57 HOLD |
|
DT
Dynatrace Holdings LLC |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$50 | 50 HOLD |
|
ADBE
Adobe Systems Incorporat… |
BUY
38 analysts |
$328 | 59 HOLD |
|
TEAM
Atlassian Corp Plc |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$172 | 46 HOLD |
|
FROG
Jfrog Ltd |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$70 | 62 BUY |
Advanced ESTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.
