ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$51.64
1.67 (3.34%)
▲
5d:
+6.43%
30d:
-7.21%
90d:
-6.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
ETSY is up 6.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $45 2026-06-18 with 6,595 OI. Put ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.73
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.03
20.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $51.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.07 to $55.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $46.91, while resistance sits at $54.67. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ETSY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.96 (+20.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $46.91, while resistance sits at $54.67. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ETSY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.96 (+20.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$50.07 -
$55.31
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.96)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.07 -
$55.31
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.91
Resistance Level
$54.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.70
Wall Street Target
$61.96
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 19.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.94
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$42.67
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$38.79
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→20)
$51.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.6%)
$105.98
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 13.6%)
$75.72
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 13.6%)
$64.37
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$116.25
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$105.68
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$35.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$68.86
(+33.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Andrew Ballard
SELL
1790 shares
2026-03-04
Marla J Blow
SELL
300 shares
2026-02-17
Josh Silverman
SELL
21666 shares
2026-02-02
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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.
