ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$52.96
-1.99 (-3.62%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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1 traders called ETSY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ETSY is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ETSY is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.23
23.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $52.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.83 to $61.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.89 (+21.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.89 (+21.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$55.83 -
$61.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($66.89)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.83 -
$61.69
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.77
Resistance Level
$64.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.78
Wall Street Target
$66.89
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.9%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.24
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$53.53
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$52.83
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$55.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 94.6%)
$189.84
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 94.6%)
$185.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 94.6%)
$157.64
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$107.22
(+102%)
Analyst growth 70.4%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$97.47
(+84%)
Market implied 70.4%, PE stable at 38.6
Bear Case
$38.89
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$57.26
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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7685 shares
2025-10-03
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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.
