EXC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXC - Exelon Corporation
$44.78
0.37 (0.83%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.84
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXC is currently trading at $44.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.33 to $44.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.88 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.88 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$43.33 -
$44.58
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$43.33 -
$44.58
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.42
Resistance Level
$45.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.67
Wall Street Target
$48.88
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.50
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$44.59
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$44.68
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.48
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.8%)
$72.79
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 4.8%)
$51.14
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.8%)
$43.47
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$50.02
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.6%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$45.47
(+2%)
Market implied 1.6%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$30.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-10-15
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-08-28
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXC price and gamma walls.
