EXE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXE - Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock
$112.41
2.51 (2.28%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.29
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXE is currently trading at $112.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.54 to $111.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.93 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.93 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$103.54 -
$111.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($130.93)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$103.54 -
$111.30
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.60
Resistance Level
$114.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.32
Wall Street Target
$130.93
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
319.3%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.66
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$113.44
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$115.26
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$110.40
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 47.0%)
$631.46
(+475%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 47.0%)
$348.84
(+217%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 47.0%)
$296.51
(+170%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$241.25
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.8
Base Case
$219.32
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.3
Bear Case
$74.57
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joshua J Viets
BUY
2000 shares
2025-08-18
Domenic J Dell'osso Jr
BUY
2500 shares
2025-08-15
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