FCFS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCFS - FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$199.58
9.66 (5.09%)
▲
5d:
+3.95%
30d:
+2.32%
90d:
+25.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
FCFS is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $200 2026-06-18 with 118 OI. Call ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCFS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCFS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.19
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$198.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCFS is currently trading at $199.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $187.56 to $195.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCFS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.00 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCFS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.00 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$187.56 -
$195.16
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($210.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$187.56 -
$195.16
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.43
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$178.53
Resistance Level
$199.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.44
Wall Street Target
$210.00
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.40
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$186.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$185.40
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$189.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.2%)
$442.32
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 17.2%)
$305.58
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 17.2%)
$259.74
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.42
Bull Case
$350.25
(+81%)
Analyst growth 65.8%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$318.41
(+64%)
Market implied 65.8%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$130.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$194.34
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard F Hambleton
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-18
R Douglas Orr
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-17
R Douglas Orr
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced FCFS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FCFS price and gamma walls.
