FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$252.46
-3.97 (-1.55%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
Get Alerted When FERG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$437.54
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$271.68
7.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $252.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.90 to $246.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.0) is in line with its historical norms (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$224.90 -
$246.69
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FERG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($261.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$224.90 -
$246.69
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$241.97
Resistance Level
$257.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.03
Wall Street Target
$261.45
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.9%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 21.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$255.15
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$253.87
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$252.60
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$257.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$446.93
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 18.0%)
$421.45
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$358.24
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.87
Bull Case
$342.11
(+36%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$311.01
(+23%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$171.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$260.96
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Winckler
SELL
83 shares
2025-10-16
Ian T Graham
SELL
606 shares
2025-10-15
James A Paisley
SELL
3000 shares
2025-10-14
Top Rated Industrial Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Industrial Distribution by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WCC
WESCO International Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$290 | 65 BUY |
|
CNM
Core & Main Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$61 | 49 HOLD |
|
GWW
WW Grainger Inc |
SELL
20 analysts |
$1071 | 67 BUY |
|
AIT
Applied Industrial Techn… |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$306 | 59 HOLD |
|
XMTR
Xometry Inc |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$65 | 44 HOLD |
Advanced FERG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FERG price and gamma walls.
