FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$223.65
-1.11 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
-14.23%
90d:
-2.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FERG is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $260 2026-04-17 with 679 OI. Call ratio: 96% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FERG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 24% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FERG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 24% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$423.23
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.79
14.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $223.65, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $223.96 to $257.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.65 (+16.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.65 (+16.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$223.96 -
$257.72
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($261.65)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$223.96 -
$257.72
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$214.51
Resistance Level
$229.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.43
Wall Street Target
$261.65
(+16.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.9%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$215.99
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$207.57
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$199.48
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$224.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$448.93
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$369.40
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$313.99
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.88
Bull Case
$341.19
(+53%)
Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$310.17
(+39%)
Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$170.89
(-23%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$252.42
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-21
Rick W. Allen
BUY
2025-12-12
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Advanced FERG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FERG price and gamma walls.
