FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$10.00
-0.06 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
+2.99%
30d:
+6.61%
90d:
+13.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.87
15.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $10.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.67 to $10.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $10.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $10.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.53
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($9.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.31
Resistance Level
$10.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.38
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-196.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.05
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$10.10
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$10.15
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.96
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 62.5%)
$47.78
(+378%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$33.75
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 62.5%)
$28.69
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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