FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$9.02
-0.14 (-1.53%)
▼
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-7.01%
90d:
-2.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.87
24.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $9.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.08 to $9.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.71, while resistance sits at $9.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.71, while resistance sits at $9.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.08 -
$9.70
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.08 -
$9.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.71
Resistance Level
$9.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.88
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-196.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.77
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.52
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$8.28
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$9.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 62.5%)
$48.42
(+437%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 62.5%)
$30.44
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 62.5%)
$25.88
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.82
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
11
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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