FINV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FINV - FinVolution Group American depositary shares, each representing five Class A ordinary shares
$5.13
-0.02 (-0.39%)
ā¼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: FINV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: FINV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.36
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FINV is currently trading at $5.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.12 to $5.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FINV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.01 (+113.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FINV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.01 (+113.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$5.12 -
$5.32
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 113.9% below Wall St target ($11.01)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.12 -
$5.32
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.03
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.42
Wall Street Target
$11.01
(+113.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.6%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.13
(0%)
2-Year Target
$5.12
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$5.10
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0ā0)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.83
(-6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$332.08
(+6348%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 7.0%)
$6.30
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 7.0%)
$5.36
(+4%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.50
Bull Case
$13.24
(+158%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 4.4
Base Case
$12.04
(+135%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 4.0
Bear Case
$4.09
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FINV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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