FMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$22.21
0.15 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
+1.42%
30d:
-5.33%
90d:
-7.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.27
26.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $22.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.18 to $23.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 420.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.13 (+22.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.13 (+22.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$22.18 -
$23.61
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
54th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 54th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($27.13)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.18 -
$23.61
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.68
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.56
Resistance Level
$23.36
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.39
Wall Street Target
$27.13
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
420.0%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.32
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$20.47
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$19.65
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$22.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 36.3%)
$196.77
(+786%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 36.3%)
$56.24
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 36.3%)
$47.81
(+115%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$42.88
(+96%)
Analyst growth 80.1%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$38.98
(+78%)
Market implied 80.1%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$14.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$25.03
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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