FSBW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$41.51
-0.47 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
+0.27%
30d:
+6.16%
90d:
+4.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FSBW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.46
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $41.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.14 to $41.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSBW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSBW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.14 -
$41.35
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.14 -
$41.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.51
Resistance Level
$42.31
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.12
Wall Street Target
$45.50
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$40.44
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$39.91
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$41.27
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$157.69
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$62.15
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$52.83
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$53.75
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$48.86
(+18%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$28.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.92
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 11:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marina Cofer-Wildsmith
SELL
2371 shares
2025-11-21
Marina Cofer-Wildsmith
SELL
161 shares
2025-11-20
Marina Cofer-Wildsmith
SELL
17 shares
2025-11-14
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