FTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTDR - Frontdoor, Inc. Common Stock
$59.11
-0.06 (-0.10%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.00
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTDR is currently trading at $59.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.05 to $60.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $56.94, while resistance sits at $61.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $56.94, while resistance sits at $61.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$58.05 -
$60.22
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.05 -
$60.22
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.50
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.94
Resistance Level
$61.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.37
Wall Street Target
$59.33
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 13.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.82
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$60.48
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$61.14
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.0%)
$100.37
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 3.0%)
$64.66
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 3.0%)
$54.96
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.49
Bull Case
$77.65
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$70.59
(+19%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$40.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey Fiarman
SELL
129673 shares
2025-08-07
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