BFAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFAM - BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
$68.17
-0.41 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
-19.57%
90d:
+0.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BFAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.58
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.53
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFAM is currently trading at $68.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.65 to $85.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.00, while resistance sits at $81.95.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.56 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.00, while resistance sits at $81.95.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.56 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$72.65 -
$85.42
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.0% below Wall St target ($92.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.65 -
$85.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.00
Resistance Level
$81.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.94
Wall Street Target
$92.56
(+35.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.13
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$56.29
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$51.00
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→16)
$68.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$190.30
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 14.5%)
$102.98
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 14.5%)
$87.53
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.32
Bull Case
$131.03
(+91%)
Analyst growth 73.0%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$119.12
(+74%)
Market implied 73.0%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$46.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$91.88
(+34.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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