GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$47.64
-0.82 (-1.69%)
▼
5d:
-5.76%
30d:
-5.31%
90d:
-16.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.06
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $47.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.32 to $51.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.32 -
$51.38
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($44.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with -22.9% revenue growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.32 -
$51.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.14
Resistance Level
$51.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.71
Wall Street Target
$44.67
(-6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.12
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$48.60
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$49.08
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.77
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 29.1%)
$193.13
(+305%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 29.1%)
$102.51
(+115%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 29.1%)
$87.13
(+83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.69
Bull Case
$46.22
(-3%)
Analyst growth -13.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$42.02
(-12%)
Market implied -13.3%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$32.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William J Krueger
SELL
6000 shares
2026-01-30
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