GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$47.54
-0.34 (-0.71%)
▼
5d:
-4.73%
30d:
+1.13%
90d:
-9.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.93
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $47.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.06 to $49.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.61, while resistance sits at $49.02.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.61, while resistance sits at $49.02.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$47.06 -
$49.50
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($44.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -22.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.06 -
$49.50
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.61
Resistance Level
$49.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.04
Wall Street Target
$44.67
(-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.30
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$49.07
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$49.86
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.7%)
$175.13
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 26.7%)
$96.78
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 26.7%)
$82.26
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.69
Bull Case
$44.36
(-7%)
Analyst growth -15.8%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$40.33
(-15%)
Market implied -15.8%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$32.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William J Krueger
SELL
6000 shares
2026-01-30
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