GCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCO - Genesco Inc.
$28.93
-1.82 (-5.92%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GCO is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GCO is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.97
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCO is currently trading at $28.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.00 to $34.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $28.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+23.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $28.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+23.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$25.00 -
$34.87
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($38.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.00 -
$34.87
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.77
(9.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.51
Resistance Level
$38.95
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.35
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.40
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.06
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$32.73
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.3%)
$134.68
(+338%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 41.3%)
$86.68
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 41.3%)
$73.68
(+140%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GCO price and gamma walls.
