GCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCO - Genesco Inc.
$28.39
-0.21 (-0.73%)
▼
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
+7.62%
90d:
+14.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.55
10.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCO is currently trading at $28.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.53 to $27.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.78, while resistance sits at $29.55.
Market Sentiment: GCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.78, while resistance sits at $29.55.
Market Sentiment: GCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$25.53 -
$27.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($36.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.53 -
$27.81
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.78
Resistance Level
$29.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.69
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.21
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$30.06
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$30.93
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 27.4%)
$82.23
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 27.4%)
$58.73
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 27.4%)
$49.92
(+76%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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