GHG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHG - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$1.22
-0.03 (-2.40%)
▼
5d:
+4.27%
30d:
-10.95%
90d:
-27.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GHG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.1% annual earnings decline despite 64% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GHG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.1% annual earnings decline despite 64% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.99
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.24
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHG is currently trading at $1.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.23 to $1.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.5) compared to its historical average (2.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 63.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1.14, while resistance sits at $1.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+195.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1.14, while resistance sits at $1.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+195.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$1.23 -
$1.36
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 195.1% below Wall St target ($3.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1.23 -
$1.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.14
Resistance Level
$1.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.49
Wall Street Target
$3.60
(+195.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.5%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.5 vs 2.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.16
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$1.10
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$1.04
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$1.21
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$4.06
(+233%)
Analyst growth 88.5%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$3.69
(+203%)
Market implied 88.5%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$1.33
(9%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.5 to 2.9
Stabilization Target:
$1.42
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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