GHG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHG - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$1.53
-0.02 (-1.29%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Dec 25, 2025
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GHG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GHG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.27
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHG is currently trading at $1.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.58 to $1.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.2) is in line with its historical norms (3.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 63.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+132.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+132.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$1.58 -
$1.74
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GHG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 132.3% below Wall St target ($3.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1.58 -
$1.74
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.52
Resistance Level
$1.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.16
Wall Street Target
$3.60
(+132.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.5%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.2 vs 3.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.53
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1.50
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$1.48
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
$1.54
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$4.06
(+166%)
Analyst growth 88.5%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$3.69
(+141%)
Market implied 88.5%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$1.33
(-13%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.2 to 3.3
Stabilization Target:
$1.62
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GHG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GHG price and gamma walls.