HLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$316.17
-0.35 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.19%
30d:
-4.3%
90d:
+0.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HLT is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $280 2026-06-18 with 14,326 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$412.27
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$255.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $316.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $312.63 to $333.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.4) is in line with its historical norms (30.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $308.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $308.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$312.63 -
$333.16
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($347.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$312.63 -
$333.16
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$308.06
Resistance Level
$324.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.36
Wall Street Target
$347.42
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.4 vs 30.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$314.27
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$312.39
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$310.51
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→31)
$316.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.4, Growth: 15.4%)
$486.18
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$353.47
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$300.45
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.55
Bull Case
$553.64
(+75%)
Analyst growth 59.0%, PE expands to 53.2
Base Case
$503.31
(+59%)
Market implied 59.0%, PE stable at 48.3
Bear Case
$215.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.4 to 30.9
Stabilization Target:
$321.83
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Christopher J Nassetta
SELL
114289 shares
2026-02-17
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