GHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHM - Graham Corporation
$81.48
-0.37 (-0.45%)
ā¼
5d:
+4.19%
30d:
-5.33%
90d:
+26.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
GHM is down 6.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-04-17 with 35 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: GHM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
ā BUY SIGNAL: GHM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHM is currently trading at $81.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.14 to $84.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.1) is in line with its historical norms (44.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 78.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $74.70, while resistance sits at $88.42.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.60 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $74.70, while resistance sits at $88.42.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.60 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$79.14 -
$84.95
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($90.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.14 -
$84.95
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$5.06
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.70
Resistance Level
$88.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.13
Wall Street Target
$90.60
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.1 vs 44.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.89
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$77.97
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$76.10
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41ā44)
$81.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.1, Growth: 45.5%)
$252.23
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 45.5%)
$137.06
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 45.5%)
$116.50
(+42%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 40.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.05
Bull Case
$101.66
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$84.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$64.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.1 to 44.3
Stabilization Target:
$88.16
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GHM price and gamma walls.
