GNRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNRC - GENERAC HOLDINGS INC
$195.01
-4.05 (-2.03%)
▼
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
-11.72%
90d:
+43.0%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
GNRC is down 10.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $185 2026-06-18 with 1,130 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GNRC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GNRC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$389.49
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$241.84
19.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNRC is currently trading at $195.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.05 to $223.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNRC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.83, while resistance sits at $211.98.
Market Sentiment: GNRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $243.94 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNRC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.83, while resistance sits at $211.98.
Market Sentiment: GNRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $243.94 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$196.05 -
$223.32
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($243.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$196.05 -
$223.32
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$15.95
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.83
Resistance Level
$211.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.03
Wall Street Target
$243.94
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$196.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$193.52
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$190.81
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$199.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 23.1%)
$436.24
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 23.1%)
$371.40
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 23.1%)
$315.69
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.75 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.50
Bull Case
$243.73
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$201.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$154.42
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$208.17
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
York A Ragen
SELL
24362 shares
2026-02-25
Aaron Jagdfeld
SELL
5000 shares
2025-11-03
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Advanced GNRC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GNRC price and gamma walls.
