GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$30.20
-0.48 (-1.56%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.65
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $30.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.33 to $31.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.3) is in line with its historical norms (27.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.34, while resistance sits at $31.11.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.34, while resistance sits at $31.11.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$29.33 -
$31.26
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($35.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.33 -
$31.26
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.33
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.34
Resistance Level
$31.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.27
Wall Street Target
$35.00
(+14.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 27.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.56
(0%)
2-Year Target
$30.44
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.31
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→28)
$30.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 14.5%)
$46.06
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.5%)
$37.66
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 14.5%)
$32.01
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$55.07
(+82%)
Analyst growth 65.4%, PE expands to 49.0
Base Case
$50.06
(+66%)
Market implied 65.4%, PE stable at 44.5
Bear Case
$20.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 27.6
Stabilization Target:
$31.05
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
