GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$37.08
2.92 (8.55%)
▲
5d:
-0.48%
30d:
+10.65%
90d:
+20.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRDN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRDN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.44
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $37.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.59 to $35.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.2) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.50 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.50 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.59 -
$35.58
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
12th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 12th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.59 -
$35.58
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.66
(9.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.92
Resistance Level
$38.12
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.16
Wall Street Target
$38.50
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.2 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.96
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$31.81
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$30.70
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$34.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$45.37
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$40.38
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$34.33
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$68.19
(+83%)
Analyst growth 74.0%, PE expands to 50.2
Base Case
$61.99
(+66%)
Market implied 74.0%, PE stable at 45.7
Bear Case
$24.22
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.2 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$38.01
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
