GRNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRNT - Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.
$5.02
0.10 (2.03%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.91
Based on -3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRNT is currently trading at $5.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.41 to $4.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRNT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRNT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$4.41 -
$4.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above fair value)
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($6.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.41 -
$4.78
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.27
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.40
Resistance Level
$5.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$6.40
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.10
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$5.17
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$5.25
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.6%)
$7.71
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: -11.6%)
$3.66
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: -11.6%)
$3.11
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.29
Bull Case
$8.59
(+71%)
Analyst growth 63.4%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$7.81
(+56%)
Market implied 63.4%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$3.25
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Matthew Reade Miller
BUY
600 shares
2025-09-15
John Mccartney
BUY
974 shares
2025-08-21
John Mccartney
BUY
5000 shares
2025-08-18
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Advanced GRNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRNT price and gamma walls.
