GTES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GTES - Gates Industrial Corporation plc
$21.04
-1.07 (-4.84%)
▼
5d:
-7.64%
30d:
-23.69%
90d:
-4.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.00
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.46
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GTES is currently trading at $21.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.38 to $26.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GTES has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+44.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GTES has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+44.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$22.38 -
$26.84
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.7% below Wall St target ($32.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.6%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.38 -
$26.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.46
Resistance Level
$23.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.90
Wall Street Target
$32.00
(+44.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.94
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$19.83
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$18.78
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$22.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.2%)
$63.55
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 15.2%)
$33.76
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 15.2%)
$28.70
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$46.30
(+103%)
Analyst growth 93.6%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$42.09
(+85%)
Market implied 93.6%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$14.78
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$26.01
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GTES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lawrence B Mallard
SELL
22188 shares
2025-11-12
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