GTES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GTES - Gates Industrial Corporation plc
$23.07
0.46 (2.03%)
▲
5d:
-2.41%
30d:
-12.51%
90d:
+5.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GTES appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 36% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GTES appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 36% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.70
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.27
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GTES is currently trading at $23.07, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.18 to $26.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GTES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+38.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GTES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+38.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$22.18 -
$26.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.7% below Wall St target ($32.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.18 -
$26.37
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.88
Resistance Level
$23.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.42
Wall Street Target
$32.00
(+38.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.22
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$21.39
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$20.60
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$23.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.2%)
$63.40
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 15.2%)
$35.23
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 15.2%)
$29.95
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$46.30
(+103%)
Analyst growth 93.6%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$42.09
(+85%)
Market implied 93.6%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$14.78
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$25.82
(+11.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GTES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lawrence B Mallard
SELL
22188 shares
2025-11-12
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