HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$374.59
2.78 (0.75%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
24d
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1 traders called HD this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$423.42
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.91
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $374.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $349.16 to $380.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (23.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $368.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $368.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$349.16 -
$380.66
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($394.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 2.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$349.16 -
$380.66
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$368.55
Resistance Level
$390.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.71
Wall Street Target
$394.12
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.4%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 23.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$379.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$386.83
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$394.57
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$371.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$414.46
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$373.98
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 3.7%)
$317.88
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.64
Bull Case
$429.96
(+16%)
Analyst growth 2.8%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$390.87
(+5%)
Market implied 2.8%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$258.65
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2025-09-26
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-09-12
William D Bastek
SELL
2303 shares
2025-09-12
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