HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$323.50
1.85 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
-2.24%
30d:
-15.03%
90d:
-7.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HD is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $400 2026-04-17 with 1,796 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$433.76
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$269.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $323.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $330.80 to $372.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $320.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $408.48 (+27.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $320.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $408.48 (+27.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$330.80 -
$372.83
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
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Holding HD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($408.48)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$330.80 -
$372.83
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$320.26
Resistance Level
$346.78
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.37
Wall Street Target
$408.48
(+27.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.2%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 23.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$310.39
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$299.53
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$289.05
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$321.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$377.08
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$359.73
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 3.8%)
$305.77
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.24
Bull Case
$372.95
(+13%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$339.04
(+3%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$218.11
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$358.24
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard V Mcphail
SELL
2550 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Sheldon Whitehouse
SELL
2026-02-23
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