FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$44.98
1.49 (3.43%)
▲
5d:
-7.75%
30d:
-16.81%
90d:
-35.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.22
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.68
13.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $44.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.25 to $52.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (27.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.33, while resistance sits at $52.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FND has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.91 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.33, while resistance sits at $52.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FND has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.91 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$47.25 -
$52.87
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($53.91)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.25 -
$52.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.33
Resistance Level
$52.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.73
Wall Street Target
$53.91
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 27.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.20
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$37.74
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$34.57
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$45.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$71.04
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$66.65
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 14.0%)
$56.65
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$58.29
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$52.99
(+18%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$30.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 27.0
Stabilization Target:
$58.57
(+30.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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