HESM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HESM - Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest
$38.12
-0.75 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-4.1%
30d:
-3.42%
90d:
+10.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HESM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HESM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.97
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HESM is currently trading at $38.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.57 to $39.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$38.57 -
$39.77
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.57 -
$39.77
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.20
Resistance Level
$40.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(-0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Profit Margin
21.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.08
(0%)
2-Year Target
$38.04
(0%)
3-Year Target
$38.01
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$38.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$73.46
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 3.6%)
$42.37
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 3.6%)
$36.02
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$45.03
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.4%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$40.94
(+2%)
Market implied 3.4%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$26.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$38.15
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HESM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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