HESM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HESM - Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest
$39.50
-0.29 (-0.73%)
▼
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
+2.12%
90d:
+14.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HESM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HESM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.97
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HESM is currently trading at $39.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.08 to $39.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$38.08 -
$39.78
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.08 -
$39.78
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.04
Resistance Level
$40.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.36
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(-3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Profit Margin
21.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.97
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.45
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$40.94
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$73.46
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$43.90
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$37.32
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$45.03
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.4%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$40.94
(+2%)
Market implied 3.4%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$26.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HESM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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