HLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$298.51
-0.77 (-0.26%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
Get Alerted When HLT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$345.44
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$214.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $298.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $291.15 to $299.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.7) is in line with its historical norms (31.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $301.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $301.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$291.15 -
$299.67
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($296.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$291.15 -
$299.67
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$287.69
Resistance Level
$301.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.72
Wall Street Target
$296.44
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.0%
Profit Margin
34.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
32.7 vs 31.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$302.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$305.90
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$309.27
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$298.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.7, Growth: 13.3%)
$435.16
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.3%)
$296.59
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$252.10
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.90
Bull Case
$432.08
(+45%)
Analyst growth 32.6%, PE expands to 47.2
Base Case
$392.80
(+32%)
Market implied 32.6%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$201.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:13 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-26
Christopher W Silcock
SELL
11905 shares
2025-08-21
Top Rated Lodging Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Lodging by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MAR
Marriott International I… |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$316 | 62 BUY |
|
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$49 | 53 HOLD |
|
HTHT
Huazhu Group Ltd |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$52 | 49 HOLD |
|
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$93 | 44 HOLD |
|
H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation |
HOLD
22 analysts |
$177 | 59 HOLD |
Advanced HLT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLT price and gamma walls.
