HP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HP - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
$35.72
-0.12 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-4.18%
30d:
+1.8%
90d:
+25.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HP is down 7.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $27.5 2026-03-20 with 3,075 OI. Call ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HP is currently trading at $35.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.20 to $36.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.5) is in line with its historical norms (35.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$34.20 -
$36.25
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.13)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$34.20 -
$36.25
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.28
Resistance Level
$37.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.53
Wall Street Target
$37.13
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.8%
Profit Margin
-7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.5 vs 35.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.09
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$34.35
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$33.63
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→36)
$35.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.5, Growth: 589.6%)
$120.96
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 589.6%)
$80.63
(+125%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 589.6%)
$68.53
(+91%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.5 to 35.7
Stabilization Target:
$38.16
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hans Helmerich
SELL
75000 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced HP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HP price and gamma walls.
